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V-Lab

Av-Gad Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026

1 Day

39.88%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

41.94%

increased by 1.78%

1 Month

43.38%

increased by 3.22%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Av-Gad Holdings Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 18, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8026
4.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0860
1.77*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5550
2.33**
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.9811
-1.58
γ21.4577
1.55
γ3-0.8972
-1.38
γ41.0075
1.97**
γ5-0.9063
-3.04***

Persistence:

0.641

Half-life:

2 days