V-Lab
Av-Gad Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
42.48%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
44.17%
increased by 0.76%
1 Month
45.30%
increased by 1.89%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 18, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7975 | 4.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0838 | 1.75* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5442 | 2.18** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.9554 | -1.62 |
| γ2 | 1.4204 | 1.59 |
| γ3 | -0.8736 | -1.41 |
| γ4 | 1.0040 | 2.01** |
| γ5 | -0.9303 | -3.07*** |
Persistence:
0.628
Half-life:
1 days
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