V-Lab
Av-Gad Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 9th, 2026
1 Day
67.76%
increased by 24.87%
1 Week
57.75%
increased by 14.86%
1 Month
49.46%
increased by 6.57%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 18, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7961 | 4.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0846 | 1.74* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5495 | 2.23** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.9726 | -1.61 |
| γ2 | 1.4501 | 1.58 |
| γ3 | -0.9076 | -1.43 |
| γ4 | 1.0554 | 2.08** |
| γ5 | -0.9752 | -3.18*** |
Persistence:
0.634
Half-life:
2 days
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