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V-Lab

Av-Gad Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 9th, 2026

1 Day

67.76%

increased by 24.87%

1 Week

57.75%

increased by 14.86%

1 Month

49.46%

increased by 6.57%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Av-Gad Holdings Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 18, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7961
4.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0846
1.74*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5495
2.23**
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.9726
-1.61
γ21.4501
1.58
γ3-0.9076
-1.43
γ41.0554
2.08**
γ5-0.9752
-3.18***

Persistence:

0.634

Half-life:

2 days