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V-Lab

Av-Gad Holdings Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 9th, 2026

1 Day

40.23%

increased by 5.06%

1 Week

38.72%

increased by 3.55%

1 Month

36.96%

increased by 1.79%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Av-Gad Holdings Ltd AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 18, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.77) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1944
9.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1042
9.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6532
22.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7715
4.16***

Persistence:

0.757

Half-life:

2 days