V-Lab
Av-Gad Holdings Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 9th, 2026
1 Day
66.02%
increased by 28.11%
1 Week
51.24%
increased by 13.33%
1 Month
41.43%
increased by 3.52%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 18, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 1.03 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 6.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2730 | 22.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3704 | 13.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0023 | -0.14 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0326 | 7.27*** |
Persistence:
0.589
Half-life:
1 days
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