V-Lab
Av-Gad Holdings Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
62.83%
decreased by 8.70%
1 Week
57.40%
decreased by 14.13%
1 Month
52.69%
decreased by 18.84%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 18, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0262 | 6.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0907 | 1.74* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5780 | 2.51** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0611 | -1.10 |
| γ2 | 0.2236 | 2.22** |
Persistence:
0.669
Half-life:
2 days
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