V-Lab
Av-Gad Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
201.06%
decreased by 11.21%
1 Week
200.36%
decreased by 11.91%
1 Month
197.95%
decreased by 14.32%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 18, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.02 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 137.4329 | 2.30** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0448 | 20.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9750 | 77.47*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0205 | 350.90*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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