V-Lab
Av-Gad Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 9th, 2026
1 Day
204.43%
increased by 18.23%
1 Week
203.13%
increased by 16.93%
1 Month
198.61%
increased by 12.41%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 18, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.02 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 119.1790 | 2.44** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0431 | 23.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9770 | 89.42*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0239 | 333.15*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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