V-Lab
Av-Gad Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
190.39%
decreased by 10.59%
1 Week
189.71%
decreased by 11.27%
1 Month
187.34%
decreased by 13.64%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 18, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.02 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 120.9855 | 2.43** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0427 | 23.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9770 | 88.45*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0234 | 336.45*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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