Deutsche Bank AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
35.11%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
35.14%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Month
35.25%
decreased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 282 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.5335 | 6.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0580 | 76.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9975 | 2,703.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6644 | 21.29*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
282 days
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