V-Lab
Deutsche Bank AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
21.57%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
21.71%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Month
22.23%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 273 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.4412 | 5.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0586 | 76.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9975 | 2,551.07*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6524 | 21.05*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
273 days
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