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Deutsche Bank AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

22.75%

increased by 1.46%

1 Week

22.87%

increased by 1.58%

1 Month

23.34%

increased by 2.05%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 06:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Bank AG GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 275 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~275 daysv = 5.65 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst6.4239
1.49
αARCH0.0582
19.08***
βGARCH0.9975
644.79***
νDF5.6463
5.28***

0.997

Persistence

275d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.4239
1.49
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0582
19.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9975
644.79***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.6463
5.28***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

275 days