V-Lab
Deutsche Bank AG Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
27.55%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
25.70%
decreased by 2.29%
1 Month
20.80%
decreased by 7.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 0.57 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0338 | 29.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1976 | 66.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7942 | 297.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0810 | 13.17*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5715 | 13.62*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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