V-Lab
MERF Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
48.96%
1 Week
46.74%
1 Month
40.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 9, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. The volatility power δ = 1.37 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1580 | 4.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.3249 | 9.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6614 | 18.94*** |
| γleverage | -0.0298 | -0.76 |
| δpower | 1.3665 | 4.41*** |
0.933
Persistence10d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1580 | 4.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3249 | 9.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6614 | 18.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0298 | -0.76 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3665 | 4.41*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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