V-Lab
MERF Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
39.00%
1 Week
39.39%
1 Month
40.88%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 9, 2011 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0593 | 3.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.1550 | 4.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8844 | 47.26*** |
| γleverage | -0.0789 | -1.94* |
1.000
Persistence-
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0593 | 3.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1550 | 4.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8844 | 47.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0789 | -1.94* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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