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V-Lab

MERF Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

61.85%

decreased by 3.49%

1 Week

62.10%

decreased by 3.24%

1 Month

63.07%

decreased by 2.27%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of MERF Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 9, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 100% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0607
12.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1567
18.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8824
183.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0782
-7.55***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days