V-Lab
MERF Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
61.85%
1 Week
62.10%
1 Month
63.07%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 9, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 100% more than negative returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0607 | 12.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1567 | 18.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8824 | 183.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0782 | -7.55*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on International Equities