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V-Lab

MERF Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

86.49%

decreased by 12.15%

1 Week

86.48%

decreased by 12.16%

1 Month

86.43%

decreased by 12.21%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of MERF Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 9, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 232 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

28.2852
7.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1274
112.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9970
2,816.42***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6722
208.38***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

232 days