V-Lab
MERF Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
47.38%
1 Week
47.69%
1 Month
48.86%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 9, 2011 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 229 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 27.9919 | 1.87* |
| αARCH | 0.1267 | 28.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9970 | 688.04*** |
| νDF | 2.6638 | 52.79*** |
0.997
Persistence229d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 27.9919 | 1.87* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1267 | 28.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9970 | 688.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6638 | 52.79*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
229 days
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