V-Lab
MERF Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
86.49%
decreased by 12.15%
1 Week
86.48%
decreased by 12.16%
1 Month
86.43%
decreased by 12.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 9, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 232 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 28.2852 | 7.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1274 | 112.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9970 | 2,816.42*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6722 | 208.38*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
232 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities