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V-Lab

MERF Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

60.11%

decreased by 5.24%

1 Week

60.79%

decreased by 4.56%

1 Month

64.22%

decreased by 1.13%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of MERF Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 9, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2576 trading days (~10.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 72% more than negative returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2236
22.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8231
106.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0939
-8.96***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2.8057
8.28***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0188
4.38***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9750
168.48***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2576 days