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V-Lab

MERF Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

36.23%

decreased by 2.66%

1 Week

37.12%

decreased by 1.77%

1 Month

40.99%

increased by 2.10%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MERF Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 9, 2011 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2702 trading days (~10.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 75% more than negative returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2702 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 75% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow96
αARCH0.2176
6.14***
βGARCH0.8289
33.50***
γleverage-0.0935
-2.21**
λ₁tau intercept2.6756
2.32**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0176
1.10
λ₃tau persistence0.9765
46.64***

1.000

Persistence

2702d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2176
6.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8289
33.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0935
-2.21**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2.6756
2.32**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0176
1.10
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9765
46.64***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2702 days