V-Lab
MERF Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
60.11%
1 Week
60.79%
1 Month
64.22%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 9, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2576 trading days (~10.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 72% more than negative returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2236 | 22.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8231 | 106.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0939 | -8.96*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.8057 | 8.28*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0188 | 4.38*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9750 | 168.48*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2576 days
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