V-Lab
MERF Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
36.23%
1 Week
37.12%
1 Month
40.99%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 9, 2011 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2702 trading days (~10.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 75% more than negative returns
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 96 | |
| αARCH | 0.2176 | 6.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8289 | 33.50*** |
| γleverage | -0.0935 | -2.21** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 2.6756 | 2.32** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0176 | 1.10 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9765 | 46.64*** |
1.000
Persistence2702d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2176 | 6.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8289 | 33.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0935 | -2.21** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.6756 | 2.32** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0176 | 1.10 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9765 | 46.64*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2702 days
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