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V-Lab

Gazprom PAO MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 5th, 2025

1 Day

0.00%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

173,591.01%

increased by 173,591.01%

1 Month

1,158,867,032,924,830,400,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 1,158,867,032,924,830,400,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Gazprom PAO MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 24, 2006 to Jun 4, 2025
Stationarity Enforced
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 69% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 69% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.7233
9.96***
βGARCH0.0217
1.59
γleverage0.5000
3.47***
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
λ₂forecast adj.1.0000
10.20***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
3.33***

0.995

Persistence

138d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7233
9.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0217
1.59
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
3.47***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

1.0000
10.20***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
3.33***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days