V-Lab
Gazprom PAO MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 5th, 2025
1 Day
0.00%
1 Week
173,591.01%
1 Month
1,158,867,032,924,830,400,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 2006 to Jun 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 69% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.7233 | 9.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0217 | 1.59 |
| γleverage | 0.5000 | 3.47*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 1.0000 | 10.20*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 3.33*** |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7233 | 9.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0217 | 1.59 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 3.47*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 10.20*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 3.33*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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