V-Lab
Gazprom PAO GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 5th, 2025
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Analysis last updated: Thursday, March 26, 2026 at 03:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 2006 to May 30, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1884 | 408.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 2,042.94*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1158 | 186.07*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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