Gazprom PAO GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 5th, 2025
1 Day
44.70%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
44.70%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
44.70%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:13 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 2006 to Jun 4, 2025Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 58-day half-lifev = 5.66 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 5.0175 | 1.32 |
| αscore | 0.0774 | 7.61*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9882 | 118.90*** |
| νDF | 5.6598 | 1.85* |
0.988
Persistence58d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 5.0175 | 1.32 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0774 | 7.61*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9882 | 118.90*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6598 | 1.85* |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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