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Gazprom PAO GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 5th, 2025

1 Day

44.70%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

44.70%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

44.70%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:13 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

06/04/2023

to

06/04/2025

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gazprom PAO GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 24, 2006 to Jun 4, 2025

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 58-day half-lifev = 5.66 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run5.0175
1.32
αscore0.0774
7.61***
βpersistence0.9882
118.90***
νDF5.6598
1.85*

0.988

Persistence

58d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

5.0175
1.32
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0774
7.61***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9882
118.90***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.6598
1.85*

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

58 days