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Gazprom PAO GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 5th, 2025

1 Day

0.00%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

0.00%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

0.00%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gazprom PAO GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 24, 2006 to Jun 4, 2025
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 7.99 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
αARCH0.3742
2.83***
βGARCH0.9990
76.89***
νDF7.9859
0.76

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3742
2.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
76.89***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9859
0.76

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days