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Gazprom PAO GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 5th, 2025

1 Day

0.00%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

0.00%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

0.00%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, March 26, 2026 at 03:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gazprom PAO GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 24, 2006 to May 30, 2025

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1884
408.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
2,042.94***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.1158
186.07***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days