V-Lab
Helix Resources Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
1,258.93%
increased by 159.31%
1 Week
1,224.46%
increased by 124.84%
1 Month
1,164.20%
increased by 64.58%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.01 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.01 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4,975.6417 | 2.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.1234 | 7.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8498 | 17.33*** |
| νDF | 2.0065 | 652.08*** |
0.850
Persistence4d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4,975.6417 | 2.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1234 | 7.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8498 | 17.33*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0065 | 652.08*** |
Persistence:
0.850
Half-life:
4 days
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