Helix Resources Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
97.73%
increased by 0.42%
1 Week
98.53%
increased by 1.22%
1 Month
101.32%
increased by 4.01%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 35-day half-lifev = 8.65 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 112.3191 | 1.72* |
| αscore | 0.1631 | 6.25*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9806 | 84.74*** |
| νDF | 8.6548 | 1.36 |
0.981
Persistence35d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 112.3191 | 1.72* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1631 | 6.25*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9806 | 84.74*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.6548 | 1.36 |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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