V-Lab
Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
88.69%
1 Week
88.58%
1 Month
88.15%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2021 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 26.3269 | 1.20 |
| αARCH | 0.0959 | 8.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9919 | 176.71*** |
| νDF | 4.1247 | 3.69*** |
0.992
Persistence85d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 26.3269 | 1.20 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0959 | 8.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9919 | 176.71*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1247 | 3.69*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
85 days
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