Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
102.89%
1 Week
102.55%
1 Month
101.26%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2021 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 27.6516 | 1.05 |
| αscore | 0.1175 | 7.70*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9904 | 129.23*** |
| νDF | 4.6757 | 2.58*** |
0.990
Persistence72d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 27.6516 | 1.05 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1175 | 7.70*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9904 | 129.23*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6757 | 2.58*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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