V-Lab
Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
71.74%
1 Week
71.86%
1 Month
72.29%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2021 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 23.9736 | 1.14 |
| αARCH | 0.0972 | 8.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9906 | 142.67*** |
| νDF | 4.1365 | 3.43*** |
0.991
Persistence73d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 23.9736 | 1.14 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0972 | 8.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9906 | 142.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1365 | 3.43*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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