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Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

88.69%

increased by 8.18%

1 Week

88.58%

increased by 8.07%

1 Month

88.15%

increased by 7.64%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:55 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2021 to Sep 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~85 daysv = 4.12 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst26.3269
1.20
αARCH0.0959
8.97***
βGARCH0.9919
176.71***
νDF4.1247
3.69***

0.992

Persistence

85d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

26.3269
1.20
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0959
8.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9919
176.71***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1247
3.69***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

85 days