V-Lab
Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
86.66%
decreased by 0.99%
1 Week
85.29%
decreased by 2.36%
1 Month
78.13%
decreased by 9.52%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:55 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2021 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.1429 | 3.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8333 | 22.04*** |
| γleverage | -0.0709 | -1.41 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 4.7219 | 1.18 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5270 | 2.47** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.941
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1429 | 3.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8333 | 22.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0709 | -1.41 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.7219 | 1.18 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5270 | 2.47** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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