Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
88.15%
increased by 22.12%
1 Week
84.22%
increased by 18.19%
1 Month
78.14%
increased by 12.11%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2021 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.1406 | 3.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8339 | 22.08*** |
| γleverage | -0.0686 | -1.38 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 4.6254 | 1.21 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5346 | 2.59*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.940
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1406 | 3.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8339 | 22.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0686 | -1.38 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.6254 | 1.21 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5346 | 2.59*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.940
Half-life:
11 days
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