Helix Resources Limited MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
174.53%
1 Week
184.66%
1 Month
202.91%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 72% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2410 | 23.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4917 | 19.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1011 | -6.80*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.2050 | 1.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2203 | 1.29 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7336 | 3.37*** |
Persistence:
0.682
Half-life:
2 days
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