V-Lab
Helix Resources Limited MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
130.05%
decreased by 18.79%
1 Week
132.46%
decreased by 16.38%
1 Month
135.52%
decreased by 13.32%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.2400 | 5.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4889 | 6.05*** |
| γleverage | -0.0992 | -1.74* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 3.5019 | 1.32 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2300 | 1.43 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7182 | 3.68*** |
0.679
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2400 | 5.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4889 | 6.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0992 | -1.74* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.5019 | 1.32 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2300 | 1.43 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7182 | 3.68*** |
Persistence:
0.679
Half-life:
2 days
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