Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

21.93%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

21.57%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Month

21.17%

decreased by 1.11%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:59 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~138629 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0000
0.11
βGARCH1.0000
5.63***
γleverage0.0000
-0.67
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.00
λ₂forecast adj.0.1119
4.21***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.40

1.000

Persistence

138629d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.11
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

1.0000
5.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0000
-0.67
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1119
4.21***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.40

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

138629 days