V-Lab
Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
51.30%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
50.94%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
49.61%
decreased by 1.65%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 07:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 57 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 57 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 57-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.2909 | |
| βGARCH | 0.7107 | |
| γleverage | -0.0272 | |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0015 | |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0082 | |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.2606 |
0.988
Persistence57d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2909 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7107 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0272 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0015 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0082 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2606 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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