Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
62.15%
increased by 1.56%
1 Week
65.67%
increased by 5.08%
1 Month
68.35%
increased by 7.76%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8451 | 4.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1969 | 1.67* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4729 | 1.25 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 3.1750 | 0.46 |
Persistence:
0.670
Half-life:
2 days
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