Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
27.56%
decreased by 2.00%
1 Week
30.42%
increased by 0.86%
1 Month
31.21%
increased by 1.65%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8196 | 4.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.2652 | 1.91* |
| βGARCH | 0.0128 | 0.08 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 10.0008 | 1.37 |
| γ2 | -30.6310 | -2.30** |
0.278
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8196 | 4.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2652 | 1.91* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0128 | 0.08 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 10.0008 | 1.37 |
| γ2 | -30.6310 | -2.30** |
Persistence:
0.278
Half-life:
1 days
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