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V-Lab
V-Lab

Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

27.56%

decreased by 2.00%

1 Week

30.42%

increased by 0.86%

1 Month

31.21%

increased by 1.65%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8196
4.53***
αARCH0.2652
1.91*
βGARCH0.0128
0.08
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ110.0008
1.37
γ2-30.6310
-2.30**

0.278

Persistence

1d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8196
4.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2652
1.91*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0128
0.08
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ110.0008
1.37
γ2-30.6310
-2.30**

Persistence:

0.278

Half-life:

1 days