V-Lab
Tgs Dis Ticaret As Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
41.61%
decreased by 4.77%
1 Week
46.46%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
52.52%
increased by 6.14%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 7, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0887 | 4.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2976 | 7.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5141 | 9.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0732 | -1.30 |
| γ2 | 0.1732 | 2.26** |
| γ3 | -0.1472 | -3.22*** |
| γ4 | 0.0100 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
0.812
Half-life:
3 days
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