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V-Lab

Tgs Dis Ticaret As Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

111.45%

increased by 21.82%

1 Week

100.25%

increased by 10.62%

1 Month

80.57%

decreased by 9.06%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tgs Dis Ticaret As S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 7, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0979
4.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2919
7.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5342
10.05***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0757
-1.33
γ20.1820
2.38**
γ3-0.1700
-4.38***
γ40.0736
2.90***

Persistence:

0.826

Half-life:

4 days