V-Lab
Tgs Dis Ticaret As Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
111.45%
increased by 21.82%
1 Week
100.25%
increased by 10.62%
1 Month
80.57%
decreased by 9.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 7, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0979 | 4.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2919 | 7.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5342 | 10.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0757 | -1.33 |
| γ2 | 0.1820 | 2.38** |
| γ3 | -0.1700 | -4.38*** |
| γ4 | 0.0736 | 2.90*** |
Persistence:
0.826
Half-life:
4 days
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