V-Lab
Pilbara Gold Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
83.17%
increased by 0.36%
1 Week
85.59%
increased by 2.78%
1 Month
93.18%
increased by 10.37%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6827 | 5.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0732 | 6.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8980 | 54.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0712 | -2.02** |
| γ2 | 0.1396 | 2.28** |
| γ3 | -0.1350 | -2.44** |
| γ4 | 0.0688 | 1.53 |
| γ5 | 0.0329 | 1.08 |
| γ6 | -0.0475 | -2.26** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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