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V-Lab

Pilbara Gold Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

83.17%

increased by 0.36%

1 Week

85.59%

increased by 2.78%

1 Month

93.18%

increased by 10.37%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Pilbara Gold Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6827
5.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0732
6.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8980
54.18***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.0712
-2.02**
γ20.1396
2.28**
γ3-0.1350
-2.44**
γ40.0688
1.53
γ50.0329
1.08
γ6-0.0475
-2.26**

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

24 days