V-Lab
Pilbara Gold Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
83.69%
increased by 0.72%
1 Week
84.96%
increased by 1.99%
1 Month
89.72%
increased by 6.75%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 183 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 196% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5296 | 4.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0276 | 9.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9416 | 297.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0541 | 8.80*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
183 days
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