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V-Lab

Pilbara Gold Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

85.61%

decreased by 1.80%

1 Week

87.28%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

93.35%

increased by 5.94%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Pilbara Gold Ltd AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7044
7.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0658
19.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9268
237.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.1476
3.31***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

93 days