Pilbara Gold Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
85.61%
decreased by 1.80%
1 Week
87.28%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
93.35%
increased by 5.94%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7044 | 7.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0658 | 19.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9268 | 237.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.1476 | 3.31*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
93 days
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