Sequoia Logistica E Transpor AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
157.28%
decreased by 19.55%
1 Week
154.79%
decreased by 22.04%
1 Month
146.75%
decreased by 30.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 7, 2020 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.11) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9708 | 11.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1861 | 15.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7751 | 61.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.1127 | 5.54*** |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
18 days
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