Emaar Misr For Development AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
35.11%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Week
34.92%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Month
34.30%
decreased by 2.08%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 6, 2015 to Jul 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1412 | 13.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0613 | 17.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9042 | 187.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0538 | 0.68 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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