V-Lab
Emaar Misr For Development GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
43.14%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
42.99%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Month
42.47%
decreased by 1.22%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 06:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 6, 2015 to Jul 22, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.2252 | 2.47** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0376 | 12.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9777 | 121.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7714 | 7.10*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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