Unipol Assicurazioni SpA AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
25.16%
increased by 1.07%
1 Week
25.88%
increased by 1.79%
1 Month
27.23%
increased by 3.14%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2017 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.15) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2635 | 10.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0920 | 18.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7874 | 81.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.1491 | 11.37*** |
Persistence:
0.879
Half-life:
5 days
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