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V-Lab

Unipol Assicurazioni SpA AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

25.16%

increased by 1.07%

1 Week

25.88%

increased by 1.79%

1 Month

27.23%

increased by 3.14%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Unipol Assicurazioni SpA AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 4, 2017 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.15) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2635
10.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0920
18.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7874
81.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.1491
11.37***

Persistence:

0.879

Half-life:

5 days