V-Lab
Unipol Assicurazioni SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
28.29%
increased by 0.11%
1 Week
28.31%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
28.37%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2017 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2255 | 4.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0815 | 11.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9534 | 94.19*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7122 | 5.01*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
15 days
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