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V-Lab

Unipol Assicurazioni SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

28.29%

increased by 0.11%

1 Week

28.31%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

28.37%

increased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Unipol Assicurazioni SpA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 4, 2017 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.2255
4.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0815
11.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9534
94.19***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7122
5.01***

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

15 days