V-Lab
Unipol Assicurazioni SpA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
24.83%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
25.75%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
27.48%
increased by 2.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2017 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0032 | 1.08 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8026 | 32.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1399 | 16.98*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.6211 | 0.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1762 | 0.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.876
Half-life:
5 days
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