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V-Lab

Unipol Assicurazioni SpA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

27.17%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

27.96%

increased by 0.73%

1 Month

29.23%

increased by 2.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Unipol Assicurazioni SpA S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 4, 2017 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6006
3.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0796
3.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7680
13.64***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.9004
-0.82
γ20.8027
0.50
γ30.8122
0.79
γ4-2.1874
-2.83***
γ53.0873
3.68***
γ6-3.6131
-3.23***
γ74.5820
2.86***
γ8-4.7078
-1.98**
γ93.2676
1.28
γ10-1.4920
-1.02

Persistence:

0.848

Half-life:

4 days