V-Lab
Unipol Assicurazioni SpA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
27.17%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
27.96%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
29.23%
increased by 2.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2017 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6006 | 3.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0796 | 3.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7680 | 13.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.9004 | -0.82 |
| γ2 | 0.8027 | 0.50 |
| γ3 | 0.8122 | 0.79 |
| γ4 | -2.1874 | -2.83*** |
| γ5 | 3.0873 | 3.68*** |
| γ6 | -3.6131 | -3.23*** |
| γ7 | 4.5820 | 2.86*** |
| γ8 | -4.7078 | -1.98** |
| γ9 | 3.2676 | 1.28 |
| γ10 | -1.4920 | -1.02 |
Persistence:
0.848
Half-life:
4 days
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