V-Lab
VT Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
48.38%
decreased by 1.45%
1 Week
48.44%
decreased by 1.39%
1 Month
48.65%
decreased by 1.18%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2001 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~95 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0877 | 4.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.0638 | 4.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9290 | 55.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0074 | -1.73* |
| γ2 | 0.0109 | 2.05** |
0.993
Persistence95d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0877 | 4.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0638 | 4.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9290 | 55.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0074 | -1.73* |
| γ2 | 0.0109 | 2.05** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
95 days
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities