V-Lab
VT Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
56.47%
decreased by 1.92%
1 Week
56.42%
decreased by 1.97%
1 Month
56.22%
decreased by 2.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~97 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0886 | 4.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.0637 | 4.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9292 | 55.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0075 | -1.73* |
| γ2 | 0.0110 | 2.05** |
0.993
Persistence97d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0886 | 4.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0637 | 4.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9292 | 55.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0075 | -1.73* |
| γ2 | 0.0110 | 2.05** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
97 days
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