VT Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
58.15%
decreased by 1.73%
1 Week
62.59%
increased by 2.71%
1 Month
69.20%
increased by 9.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2001 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1674 | 25.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5957 | 27.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0166 | -1.56 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2683 | 1.08 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1705 | 1.40 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8193 | 6.04*** |
Persistence:
0.755
Half-life:
2 days
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