V-Lab
VT Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
62.91%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
67.33%
increased by 4.12%
1 Month
70.32%
increased by 7.11%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1668 | 25.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5975 | 27.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0177 | -1.67* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2676 | 1.08 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1705 | 1.40 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8193 | 6.04*** |
Persistence:
0.755
Half-life:
2 days
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