V-Lab
VT Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
80.27%
increased by 11.58%
1 Week
77.87%
increased by 9.18%
1 Month
75.98%
increased by 7.29%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1671 | 25.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5962 | 27.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0166 | -1.55 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2681 | 1.08 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1704 | 1.40 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8194 | 6.04*** |
Persistence:
0.755
Half-life:
2 days
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