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VT Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

53.23%

decreased by 5.21%

1 Week

54.78%

decreased by 3.66%

1 Month

60.27%

increased by 1.83%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of VT Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 19, 2001 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~81 daysv = 3.14 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst50.5456
0.93
αARCH0.1282
20.61***
βGARCH0.9915
111.53***
νDF3.1438
14.09***

0.991

Persistence

81d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

50.5456
0.93
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1282
20.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9915
111.53***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.1438
14.09***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

81 days