V-Lab
VT Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
48.61%
1 Week
50.34%
1 Month
56.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 52.3878 | 0.95 |
| αARCH | 0.1268 | 21.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9920 | 121.66*** |
| νDF | 3.1431 | 14.79*** |
0.992
Persistence86d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 52.3878 | 0.95 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1268 | 21.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9920 | 121.66*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1431 | 14.79*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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