V-Lab
VT Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
77.09%
decreased by 1.57%
1 Week
77.84%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Month
80.63%
increased by 1.97%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 53.2651 | 3.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1269 | 86.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9922 | 498.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1439 | 59.97*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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