V-Lab
VT Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
106.09%
increased by 15.78%
1 Week
106.25%
increased by 15.94%
1 Month
106.87%
increased by 16.56%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 53.4127 | 3.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1277 | 86.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9921 | 492.11*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1408 | 59.84*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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