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V-Lab

VT Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

77.09%

decreased by 1.57%

1 Week

77.84%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Month

80.63%

increased by 1.97%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of VT Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 19, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

53.2651
3.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1269
86.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9922
498.82***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.1439
59.97***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

88 days