V-Lab
VT Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
53.23%
1 Week
54.78%
1 Month
60.27%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2001 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 50.5456 | 0.93 |
| αARCH | 0.1282 | 20.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9915 | 111.53*** |
| νDF | 3.1438 | 14.09*** |
0.991
Persistence81d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 50.5456 | 0.93 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1282 | 20.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9915 | 111.53*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1438 | 14.09*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
81 days
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