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V-Lab

VT Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

61.20%

decreased by 3.24%

1 Week

62.00%

decreased by 2.44%

1 Month

65.03%

increased by 0.59%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:37 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of VT Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 19, 2001 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 207 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~207 daysv = 4.39 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run74.6752
1.28
αscore0.1261
22.13***
βpersistence0.9967
398.03***
νDF4.3864
10.54***

0.997

Persistence

207d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

74.6752
1.28
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1261
22.13***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9967
398.03***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3864
10.54***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

207 days