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VT Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

48.61%

decreased by 6.15%

1 Week

50.34%

decreased by 4.42%

1 Month

56.44%

increased by 1.68%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of VT Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 19, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~86 daysv = 3.14 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst52.3878
0.95
αARCH0.1268
21.41***
βGARCH0.9920
121.66***
νDF3.1431
14.79***

0.992

Persistence

86d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

52.3878
0.95
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1268
21.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9920
121.66***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.1431
14.79***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

86 days