V-Lab
VT Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
66.41%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Week
66.58%
decreased by 1.07%
1 Month
67.26%
decreased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 204 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1056 | 12.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0688 | 18.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9321 | 285.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0085 | -1.22 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
204 days
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