V-Lab
VT Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
72.54%
increased by 4.94%
1 Week
72.67%
increased by 5.07%
1 Month
73.14%
increased by 5.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 205 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1057 | 12.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0688 | 18.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9320 | 284.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0083 | -1.18 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
205 days
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