V-Lab
VT Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
51.63%
decreased by 1.43%
1 Week
51.97%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Month
53.25%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2001 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 195 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~195 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1063 | 3.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.0686 | 4.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9320 | 71.14*** |
| γleverage | -0.0083 | -0.30 |
0.996
Persistence195d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1063 | 3.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0686 | 4.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9320 | 71.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0083 | -0.30 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
195 days
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