VT Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
54.54%
decreased by 1.12%
1 Week
54.83%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Month
55.97%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2001 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 195 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~195 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1060 | 3.04*** |
| αARCH | 0.0686 | 4.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9321 | 71.44*** |
| γleverage | -0.0085 | -0.30 |
0.996
Persistence195d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1060 | 3.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0686 | 4.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9321 | 71.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0085 | -0.30 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
195 days
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