V-Lab
VT Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
76.32%
increased by 7.99%
1 Week
76.41%
increased by 8.08%
1 Month
76.76%
increased by 8.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2001 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 204 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1057 | 12.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0687 | 18.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9320 | 284.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0082 | -1.17 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
204 days
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