V-Lab
VT Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
59.55%
decreased by 1.88%
1 Week
59.79%
decreased by 1.64%
1 Month
60.73%
decreased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 204 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~204 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1053 | 3.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.0686 | 4.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9322 | 71.50*** |
| γleverage | -0.0084 | -0.30 |
0.997
Persistence204d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1053 | 3.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0686 | 4.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9322 | 71.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0084 | -0.30 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
204 days
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