BASF SE GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
21.47%
increased by 0.79%
1 Week
21.70%
increased by 1.02%
1 Month
22.47%
increased by 1.79%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 214% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0563 | 21.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0295 | 14.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9189 | 434.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0631 | 14.36*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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