V-Lab
BASF SE GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
23.28%
increased by 0.12%
1 Week
23.41%
increased by 0.25%
1 Month
23.89%
increased by 0.73%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 216% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0555 | 21.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0290 | 14.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9200 | 438.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0625 | 14.35*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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