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V-Lab

Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

19.40%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Week

20.03%

increased by 0.38%

1 Month

22.26%

increased by 2.61%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 22, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 44% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0622
13.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0717
12.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9310
398.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0218
-2.37**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

84 days