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Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

19.55%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Week

20.01%

increased by 0.15%

1 Month

21.68%

increased by 1.82%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:39 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 22, 2010 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~124 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0446
3.00***
αARCH0.0670
3.08***
βGARCH0.9383
112.68***
γleverage-0.0217
-0.63

0.994

Persistence

124d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0446
3.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0670
3.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9383
112.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0217
-0.63

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

124 days