V-Lab
Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
18.55%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
19.15%
increased by 0.37%
1 Month
21.29%
increased by 2.51%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2010 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 45% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0550 | 12.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0700 | 12.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9338 | 416.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0218 | -2.43** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
97 days
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