Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
19.40%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
20.03%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
22.26%
increased by 2.61%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 44% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0622 | 13.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0717 | 12.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9310 | 398.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0218 | -2.37** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
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