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V-Lab

Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

19.97%

increased by 1.83%

1 Week

20.49%

increased by 2.35%

1 Month

22.39%

increased by 4.25%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 22, 2010 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 46% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0534
12.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0696
12.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9344
420.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0218
-2.45**

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

100 days