V-Lab
Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
19.97%
increased by 1.83%
1 Week
20.49%
increased by 2.35%
1 Month
22.39%
increased by 4.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2010 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 46% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0534 | 12.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0696 | 12.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9344 | 420.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0218 | -2.45** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
100 days
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