V-Lab
Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
20.75%
increased by 1.16%
1 Week
21.19%
increased by 1.60%
1 Month
22.78%
increased by 3.19%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2010 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~120 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0462 | 3.01*** |
| αARCH | 0.0679 | 3.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9374 | 110.76*** |
| γleverage | -0.0222 | -0.64 |
0.994
Persistence120d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0462 | 3.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0679 | 3.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9374 | 110.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0222 | -0.64 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
120 days
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