V-Lab
Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
17.20%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
17.78%
increased by 0.37%
1 Month
19.85%
increased by 2.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2010 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~116 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0474 | 2.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.0681 | 3.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9369 | 109.33*** |
| γleverage | -0.0219 | -0.63 |
0.994
Persistence116d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0474 | 2.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0681 | 3.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9369 | 109.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0219 | -0.63 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
116 days
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