V-Lab
Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
18.50%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
19.06%
increased by 0.30%
1 Month
21.09%
increased by 2.33%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 10:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 46% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0514 | 12.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0690 | 12.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9353 | 427.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0218 | -2.48** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
105 days
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