Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
19.55%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
20.01%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
21.68%
increased by 1.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:39 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2010 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~124 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0446 | 3.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.0670 | 3.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9383 | 112.68*** |
| γleverage | -0.0217 | -0.63 |
0.994
Persistence124d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0446 | 3.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0670 | 3.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9383 | 112.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0217 | -0.63 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
124 days
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