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V-Lab

Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

18.50%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Week

19.06%

increased by 0.30%

1 Month

21.09%

increased by 2.33%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 10:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 22, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 46% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0514
12.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0690
12.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9353
427.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0218
-2.48**

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

105 days