V-Lab
Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
14.44%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
15.98%
increased by 1.14%
1 Month
17.83%
increased by 2.99%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0444 | 8.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1725 | 8.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6270 | 13.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.1323 | 2.22** |
| γ2 | -0.2243 | -2.47** |
| γ3 | 0.2039 | 3.18*** |
| γ4 | -0.2581 | -4.16*** |
| γ5 | 0.1520 | 2.38** |
| γ6 | 0.0594 | 1.18 |
Persistence:
0.800
Half-life:
3 days
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