V-Lab
Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
15.32%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
16.52%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
18.00%
increased by 1.96%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2010 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0440 | 8.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1717 | 8.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6299 | 13.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.1337 | 2.22** |
| γ2 | -0.2265 | -2.47** |
| γ3 | 0.2052 | 3.16*** |
| γ4 | -0.2573 | -4.10*** |
| γ5 | 0.1483 | 2.29** |
| γ6 | 0.0631 | 1.24 |
Persistence:
0.802
Half-life:
3 days
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