V-Lab
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
59.05%
increased by 26.43%
1 Week
46.43%
increased by 13.81%
1 Month
38.68%
increased by 6.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5736 | 8.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1387 | 4.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3760 | 3.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.5054 | 2.81*** |
| γ2 | -0.7971 | -2.28** |
| γ3 | 0.3090 | 0.91 |
| γ4 | 0.1549 | 0.58 |
| γ5 | -0.1959 | -0.92 |
| γ6 | 0.0631 | 0.27 |
| γ7 | -0.2666 | -1.10 |
| γ8 | 0.3856 | 1.94* |
| γ9 | -0.1521 | -0.85 |
| γ10 | -0.0268 | -0.17 |
Persistence:
0.515
Half-life:
1 days
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