V-Lab
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
32.53%
decreased by 1.75%
1 Week
34.43%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
35.33%
increased by 1.05%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5722 | 8.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1388 | 4.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3733 | 3.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.5016 | 2.83*** |
| γ2 | -0.7923 | -2.30** |
| γ3 | 0.3085 | 0.92 |
| γ4 | 0.1556 | 0.59 |
| γ5 | -0.1996 | -0.94 |
| γ6 | 0.0652 | 0.28 |
| γ7 | -0.2651 | -1.10 |
| γ8 | 0.3866 | 1.97** |
| γ9 | -0.1581 | -0.90 |
| γ10 | -0.0208 | -0.14 |
Persistence:
0.512
Half-life:
1 days
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