Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
38.70%
increased by 5.78%
1 Week
36.22%
increased by 3.30%
1 Month
34.93%
increased by 2.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5810 | 8.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1402 | 4.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3739 | 3.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.5139 | 2.78*** |
| γ2 | -0.8080 | -2.25** |
| γ3 | 0.3105 | 0.90 |
| γ4 | 0.1534 | 0.58 |
| γ5 | -0.1889 | -0.88 |
| γ6 | 0.0609 | 0.26 |
| γ7 | -0.2749 | -1.12 |
| γ8 | 0.3977 | 1.96* |
| γ9 | -0.1756 | -0.93 |
| γ10 | 0.0041 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.514
Half-life:
1 days
Other Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities