V-Lab
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
32.10%
decreased by 1.98%
1 Week
33.64%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Month
34.38%
increased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5795 | 8.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1410 | 4.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3738 | 3.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.5065 | 2.81*** |
| γ2 | -0.7980 | -2.28** |
| γ3 | 0.3087 | 0.91 |
| γ4 | 0.1552 | 0.58 |
| γ5 | -0.1962 | -0.92 |
| γ6 | 0.0645 | 0.27 |
| γ7 | -0.2710 | -1.11 |
| γ8 | 0.3976 | 1.99** |
| γ9 | -0.1794 | -0.98 |
| γ10 | 0.0045 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.515
Half-life:
1 days
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