V-Lab
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
34.66%
decreased by 5.04%
1 Week
35.05%
decreased by 4.65%
1 Month
35.24%
decreased by 4.46%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5805 | 8.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.1406 | 4.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3688 | 3.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.4994 | 2.89*** |
| γ2 | -0.7892 | -2.34** |
| γ3 | 0.3092 | 0.93 |
| γ4 | 0.1551 | 0.59 |
| γ5 | -0.2040 | -0.97 |
| γ6 | 0.0660 | 0.29 |
| γ7 | -0.2583 | -1.09 |
| γ8 | 0.3842 | 2.00** |
| γ9 | -0.1654 | -0.98 |
| γ10 | -0.0126 | -0.09 |
0.509
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5805 | 8.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1406 | 4.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3688 | 3.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.4994 | 2.89*** |
| γ2 | -0.7892 | -2.34** |
| γ3 | 0.3092 | 0.93 |
| γ4 | 0.1551 | 0.59 |
| γ5 | -0.2040 | -0.97 |
| γ6 | 0.0660 | 0.29 |
| γ7 | -0.2583 | -1.09 |
| γ8 | 0.3842 | 2.00** |
| γ9 | -0.1654 | -0.98 |
| γ10 | -0.0126 | -0.09 |
Persistence:
0.509
Half-life:
1 days
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