V-Lab
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
41.76%
decreased by 2.53%
1 Week
41.23%
decreased by 3.06%
1 Month
40.26%
decreased by 4.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 2, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.50) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8158 | 11.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0814 | 17.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7835 | 65.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4956 | 3.48*** |
Persistence:
0.865
Half-life:
5 days
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