City of London Investment Group PLC AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
63.95%
increased by 1.60%
1 Week
68.71%
increased by 6.36%
1 Month
70.16%
increased by 7.81%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -2.69) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.1215 | 7.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1676 | 5.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1584 | 8.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -2.6908 | -3.61*** |
Persistence:
0.326
Half-life:
1 days
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