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V-Lab

City of London Investment Group PLC AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

67.26%

decreased by 21.13%

1 Week

69.84%

decreased by 18.55%

1 Month

70.64%

decreased by 17.75%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of City of London Investment Group PLC AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.51) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.4907
6.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1671
5.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1536
8.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-3.5084
-5.52***

Persistence:

0.321

Half-life:

1 days