V-Lab
City of London Investment Group PLC AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
67.26%
decreased by 21.13%
1 Week
69.84%
decreased by 18.55%
1 Month
70.64%
decreased by 17.75%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.51) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.4907 | 6.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1671 | 5.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1536 | 8.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -3.5084 | -5.52*** |
Persistence:
0.321
Half-life:
1 days
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