V-Lab
City of London Investment Group PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
74.41%
decreased by 1.12%
1 Week
83.69%
increased by 8.16%
1 Month
86.19%
increased by 10.66%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.2784 | 2.25** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2751 | 2.32** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 2,143.5652 | 4.35*** |
| γ2 | -3,176.9192 | -3.98*** |
| γ3 | 1,948.9345 | 2.99*** |
| γ4 | -1,807.6950 | -3.16*** |
| γ5 | 1,596.3973 | 2.60*** |
| γ6 | -1,392.1864 | -1.53 |
| γ7 | 883.4806 | 0.90 |
| γ8 | 369.1907 | 0.48 |
| γ9 | -824.9317 | -1.89* |
Persistence:
0.275
Half-life:
1 days
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