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V-Lab

City of London Investment Group PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

74.41%

decreased by 1.12%

1 Week

83.69%

increased by 8.16%

1 Month

86.19%

increased by 10.66%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of City of London Investment Group PLC S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.2784
2.25**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2751
2.32**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ12,143.5652
4.35***
γ2-3,176.9192
-3.98***
γ31,948.9345
2.99***
γ4-1,807.6950
-3.16***
γ51,596.3973
2.60***
γ6-1,392.1864
-1.53
γ7883.4806
0.90
γ8369.1907
0.48
γ9-824.9317
-1.89*

Persistence:

0.275

Half-life:

1 days