City of London Investment Group PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
30.88%
increased by 13.15%
1 Week
35.37%
increased by 17.64%
1 Month
49.39%
increased by 31.66%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 6665 trading days (~26.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.4647 | 0.89 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.9803 | 9.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0196 | 0.19 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -416.2174 | -0.89 |
| γ2 | 473.8161 | 0.78 |
| γ3 | -218.1697 | -0.88 |
| γ4 | 282.4479 | 2.06** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
6665 days
Other City of London Investment Group PLC Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities