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V-Lab

City of London Investment Group PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

30.88%

increased by 13.15%

1 Week

35.37%

increased by 17.64%

1 Month

49.39%

increased by 31.66%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of City of London Investment Group PLC S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 6665 trading days (~26.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.4647
0.89
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.9803
9.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0196
0.19
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-416.2174
-0.89
γ2473.8161
0.78
γ3-218.1697
-0.88
γ4282.4479
2.06**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

6665 days