V-Lab
City of London Investment Group PLC Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
25.71%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
27.25%
increased by 1.50%
1 Month
27.63%
increased by 1.88%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 06:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6848 | 3.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1984 | 2.01** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 100.8908 | 1.48 |
| γ2 | -203.2138 | -1.94* |
| γ3 | 178.4515 | 2.31** |
Persistence:
0.198
Half-life:
0 days
Other City of London Investment Group PLC Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities