City of London Investment Group PLC APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
62.74%
increased by 18.44%
1 Week
82.30%
increased by 38.00%
1 Month
94.69%
increased by 50.39%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 5.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6804 | 17.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0396 | 0.64 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0210 | -0.28 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 7.71*** |
Persistence:
0.599
Half-life:
1 days
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