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V-Lab

City of London Investment Group PLC APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

62.74%

increased by 18.44%

1 Week

82.30%

increased by 38.00%

1 Month

94.69%

increased by 50.39%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of City of London Investment Group PLC APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
5.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6804
17.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0396
0.64
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0210
-0.28
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
7.71***

Persistence:

0.599

Half-life:

1 days