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V-Lab

Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

25.85%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

26.31%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

28.02%

increased by 1.72%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 27, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.70 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0525
17.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0811
33.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9189
436.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0013
-0.07
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7031
35.86***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

92 days