V-Lab
Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
25.85%
1 Week
26.31%
1 Month
28.02%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 27, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.70 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0525 | 17.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0811 | 33.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9189 | 436.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0013 | -0.07 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7031 | 35.86*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
92 days
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