V-Lab
Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
20.10%
1 Week
20.91%
1 Month
22.96%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 27, 1993 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 23% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1097 | 30.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8226 | 119.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0203 | -3.65*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0282 | 3.82*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0454 | 4.41*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9494 | 80.57*** |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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