V-Lab
Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
24.81%
increased by 0.34%
1 Week
25.14%
increased by 0.67%
1 Month
26.37%
increased by 1.90%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 27, 1993 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 166 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.2557 | 5.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0662 | 73.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9958 | 1,331.31*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2766 | 29.32*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
166 days
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