V-Lab
Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
19.37%
increased by 0.14%
1 Week
19.63%
increased by 0.40%
1 Month
20.39%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 27, 1993 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3806 | 5.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0885 | 8.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8696 | 57.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0494 | -0.99 |
| γ2 | 0.0487 | 0.63 |
| γ3 | 0.0815 | 1.73* |
| γ4 | -0.1842 | -4.42*** |
| γ5 | 0.1525 | 3.49*** |
| γ6 | 0.0054 | 0.13 |
| γ7 | -0.1640 | -4.26*** |
| γ8 | 0.1657 | 6.40*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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