Thalia Therapeutics PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
69.62%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
79.57%
increased by 9.95%
1 Month
87.06%
increased by 17.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 09:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9470 | 4.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2094 | 4.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4752 | 5.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.2356 | 5.18*** |
| γ2 | -0.3305 | -4.69*** |
| γ3 | 0.1063 | 2.02** |
| γ4 | -0.0004 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
0.685
Half-life:
2 days
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