V-Lab
Thalia Therapeutics PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
73.85%
decreased by 4.73%
1 Week
81.35%
increased by 2.77%
1 Month
87.19%
increased by 8.61%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9431 | 4.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2087 | 4.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4773 | 5.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.2337 | 5.18*** |
| γ2 | -0.3281 | -4.70*** |
| γ3 | 0.1056 | 2.02** |
| γ4 | 0.0001 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.686
Half-life:
2 days
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