V-Lab
Thalia Therapeutics PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
7.17%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
8.16%
increased by 0.71%
1 Month
11.19%
increased by 3.74%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Illiquid Asset
Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.9175 | 48.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0837 | 507.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9955 | |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0000 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
154 days
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